For Captain Maria Santos, the past six weeks have been a study in waiting. Her container ship, carrying electronics from South Korea to European ports, has been anchored in the Persian Gulf since early March, one of hundreds of vessels trapped when Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz. She and her crew of 23 have watched fuel supplies dwindle, food stores rotate through their last reserves, and families back home grow increasingly anxious. "We video call when we can," she told colleagues via satellite phone earlier this week. "My daughter asks when I'm coming home. I don't have an answer."

Iran's announcement Friday that it would reopen the crucial waterway brought a flood of relief — tempered immediately by wariness — across the global shipping industry. The closure, which began nearly seven weeks ago amid escalating regional tensions, has created one of the most significant disruptions to global trade in decades, with roughly 770 vessels now sending transponder signals from inside the Gulf, according to Bloomberg data. Approximately 360 of those are oil and gas carriers, their holds full of energy supplies destined for markets worldwide.

But industry leaders made clear Friday that Iran's declaration alone wouldn't be enough to get ships moving safely through waters that may still harbor mines and where the rules of passage remain unclear.

The Logistics of Chaos

"One thousand ships cannot just go now to the entrance of the strait, that will be chaos," said Nils Haupt, spokesman for German transportation giant Hapag-Lloyd, which has multiple vessels stuck in the Gulf. "They need to give clear orders."

The concern is both practical and existential. Before the closure, the Strait of Hormuz saw an average of 120 vessel crossings daily, according to industry journal Lloyd's List. The narrow waterway, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, serves as the primary corridor for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply and countless other goods moving between the Gulf states and global markets.

Now, with nearly 800 ships potentially trying to navigate the strait simultaneously — and with persistent fears about sea mines laid during the closure — the industry is demanding detailed protocols. Which ships go first? What routes are verified as clear? Who coordinates the traffic flow?

"We would be ready to go very soon if some of these open questions can be solved within the weekend," Haupt told AFP by phone Friday. His conditional optimism reflected the broader industry mood: eager to move, but unwilling to risk crews and cargo without guarantees.

Conflicting Signals

The uncertainty deepened Friday when U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Iran had announced the waterway "fully open and ready for full passage" — a characterization that industry experts immediately disputed.

Jakob Larsen, chief security officer of BIMCO, one of the shipping industry's major associations, called Trump's claim "inaccurate" in a statement. "The status of mine threats in Iran's maritime traffic separation scheme is unclear, and BIMCO believes shipping companies should consider avoiding the area," he said.

The discrepancy highlights a fundamental problem: even as diplomatic announcements suggest progress, the people responsible for actually moving ships through the strait lack the concrete information they need to make decisions. For captains like Santos and the thousands of other seafarers stuck in the Gulf, the gap between political declarations and operational reality means more waiting.

The Human Cost of Closure

While much attention has focused on the economic impact — shipping costs have surged, supply chains have fractured, and insurance premiums have skyrocketed — the nearly seven-week closure has taken a particular toll on the maritime workforce. Crews that expected to be home after standard rotations have instead found themselves in an indefinite holding pattern, their contracts extended by circumstances beyond anyone's control.

Thomas Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, acknowledged this human dimension in his response to Iran's announcement. He called it "a positive step" that offered "a cautious measure of reassurance to" shipping companies and "the thousands of seafarers stuck in the Gulf by the Middle East war for nearly seven weeks."

But Kazakos also emphasized that a temporary reopening wouldn't be enough. "It is essential that it marks the beginning of a broader and more durable return, beyond the current ceasefire, to freedom of navigation in one of the world's most critical maritime corridors," he said in a statement.

What Comes Next

The shipping industry now finds itself in a familiar but uncomfortable position: waiting for clarity while economic pressures mount. Every day vessels remain anchored represents lost revenue, spoiled cargo, and strained crews. Yet the alternative — rushing through potentially mined waters without clear guidance — poses unacceptable risks.

Industry observers expect the coming days to be critical. If Iran can provide detailed routing information and credible assurances about mine clearance over the weekend, as Haupt suggested might be possible, ships could begin moving as early as next week. If not, the standoff could extend indefinitely, with vessels continuing to avoid the region and global supply chains adapting to a world where the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

For the crews aboard those 770 vessels, the announcement Friday brought hope, however cautious. But hope, as Captain Santos and her colleagues have learned over the past six weeks, is not the same as a clear route home. Until the mines are swept, the protocols established, and the passage verified as safe, the waiting continues.

The strait may be declared open, but the waters remain uncertain — and in the shipping industry, uncertainty is a luxury no one can afford for long.